Fantasy draft philosophy to avoid RB, WR busts (Yahoo Sports)



The concept of avoiding players on teams with execrable quarterbacks is pretty obvious but not something I thought was worthy of a rule until trying to assess the odds of a resurgence for two previously productive players.

I found that having a quarterback as execrable as Brock Osweiler made any chance that DeAndre Hopkins or Lamar Miller would bounce back virtually hopeless — a 25% chance for Miller to be fantasy relevant and approximately a 0% chance for Hopkins.

I had no shares of Hopkins and Miller because even though Osweiler uncertainty was built into their average draft position, theoretically, it just never occurred to me to recall them anywhere. I virtually red-lined them. But what whether I really red-lined them? What whether instead of subscribing to the zeroRB philosophy (where you don’t draft a running back with a premium pick), you substitute zeroBadQB?

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outright this means is that you don’t recall any players on teams that are led by a quarterback who you expect to be execrable. And I don’t mean execrable in a relative sense like we sometimes pick up from Eli Manning and Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill. I mean straight up execrable.

Now everyone who hears this theory says, “Of course I try to effect this. disappear to where the points are.” But I’m not talking approximately trying; I’m talking approximately doing. Just support drafting players on teams with QBs who are okay or better and avoid the ones who play with QBs who are probably execrable to terrible. Please note that this is not merely a strategy for drafting wide receivers but applies equally to running backs (and obviously tight ends) too. The result: you forget approximately a 30% of the player pool through at least five rounds and hopefully for much longer.

The best support for the zeroBadQB method happens to involve wide receivers and is if by Jacob Rickrode (@clutchfantasy) via Rotoviz (subscription required).

“When projecting Top 24 (wide receivers) history has shown an average of 12 NFL teams will not contain one. The Nos. 13-24 WRs since 2011 contain averaged 125 targets on the season.”

Yes, those are most likely to be the receivers on the teams with the execrable QBs. whether you play with one, you can’t be expected to crack the top 24 in the conclude-of-the-season rankings. So at a minimum don’t rank one of these wide receivers in the top 24 at the position. And furthermore, we see that the target volume that we generally feature prominently in our rankings is overrated; whether the wide receiver has a marvelous quarterback, each target is worth more (and vice versa). So 125 targets from Drew Brees is worth at least 150 from, say, Blake Bortles or Carson Wentz. Better efficiency costs you volume, but that doesn’t mean it costs you fantasy points.

So now we contain to choose which teams contain quarterbacks that are so likely to be execrable that we contain to avoid outright their players. Again, these players generally contain low floors and low ceilings, so who needs them?

You can calibrate this however strictly you want. The quarterback and teams that are to be avoided on my cheat sheet are:

Jared Goff (Rams)
DeShaun Watson/Tom Savage (Texans)
Trevor Siemian (Broncos)
Josh McCown (Jets)
Cody Kessler (Browns)
Mike Glennon/Mitchell Trubisky (Bears)
Brian Hoyer (49ers)
Blake Bortles (Jaguars)
Carson Wentz (Eagles)

You can pick up into a game where you say, “whether Bortles, why not Eli Manning.” But I contain a tough line. And Manning has consistently supported elite performers. Bortles did in 2015, it’s impartial to say. But I consider he’s terrible and can’t stand the concept of having to watch him try to support my players. That’s a personal decision though. And perhaps, possibly you like most Eagles fans consider Wentz outright evidence to the opposite is the man instead of stamp Sanchez 2.0. You contain to work this out. The toughest calls for me on this list are Kessler and Siemian. I actually consider Kessler is marvelous, but the Browns don’t seem to agree and he’s a mammoth injury risk regardless. So no Isaiah Crowell. But I’ll catch Kenny Britt (who has proven he can rise above terrible QB play) at a virtually free price, currently going in the 120s.

Guys on my dead list in the crucial first five rounds due to zeroBadQB according to current ADP are Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Hopkins, Miller, Allen Robinson, Demaryius Thomas (this one hurts but as noteworthy as he is, five TDs final year), Crowell, Alshon Jeffery, Carlos Hyde and C.J. Anderson. Only 11 players through 60 picks. So we’re sort of doing this besides. But my advice is to disappear outright in on keeping these guys off your roster.



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